Difference between revisions of "Amount of evidence"

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==Main post==
==Main post==
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jn/how_much_evidence_does_it_take/ How Much Evidence Does It Take?] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jn/how_much_evidence_does_it_take/ How Much Evidence Does It Take?]
==Blog posts==
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jo/einsteins_arrogance/ Einstein's Arrogance] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
==Other posts==
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jo/einsteins_arrogance/ Einstein's Arrogance]
==See also==
==See also==

Latest revision as of 07:15, 18 November 2009

To a Bayesian, evidence is a quantitative concept. In principle, a hypothetical Bayesian superintelligence could say not only that the evidence supports a particular hypothesis, but by how much. (In practice the true math is usually intractable.) The more complicated or a priori improbable a hypothesis is, the more evidence you need just to justify it, or even just single it out of the amongst the mass of competing theories.

We often find it convenient to express the amount of evidence in terms of logarithms of odds, decibels if we use the base-10 logarithm, bits if we use the base-2.

Main post

Other posts

See also