Difference between revisions of "Antiprediction"

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Revision as of 01:31, 23 May 2009

Antiprediction is prediction of an event not happening, as contrasted by prediction, telling that an event will happen. Antiprediction fights the tendency of people to clutch to the last possibility, even where it's completely implausible that a certain event will happen, to a point where thinking about it becomes counterproductive and otherwise distorts the decision-making process. Just as prediction simplifies reasoning by allowing to assume that an even will occur and only planning for the case where it does occur, antiprediction simplifies the reasoning by allowing to completely disregard the case where the event occurs.

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Overcoming Bias Articles