Difference between revisions of "Antiprediction"
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'''Antiprediction''' is a statement of confidence in event not happening, as contrasted by [[prediction]], telling that an event will happen. Antiprediction fights the tendency of people to clutch to the last [[possibility]], even where it's completely implausible that a certain event will happen, to a point where thinking about it becomes counterproductive and otherwise distorts the decision-making process. Just as prediction simplifies reasoning by allowing to assume that an even will occur and only planning for the case where it does occur, antiprediction simplifies the reasoning by allowing to completely disregard the case where the event occurs. | '''Antiprediction''' is a statement of confidence in event not happening, as contrasted by [[prediction]], telling that an event will happen. Antiprediction fights the tendency of people to clutch to the last [[possibility]], even where it's completely implausible that a certain event will happen, to a point where thinking about it becomes counterproductive and otherwise distorts the decision-making process. Just as prediction simplifies reasoning by allowing to assume that an even will occur and only planning for the case where it does occur, antiprediction simplifies the reasoning by allowing to completely disregard the case where the event occurs. | ||
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*[[Prediction]] | *[[Prediction]] | ||
*[[Possibility]] | *[[Possibility]] | ||
| − | == | + | ==Blog posts== |
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/disjunctions-an.html Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/disjunctions-an.html Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/still-a-chance.html But There's Still A Chance, Right?] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/still-a-chance.html But There's Still A Chance, Right?] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||
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[[Category:Concepts]] | [[Category:Concepts]] | ||
Revision as of 21:20, 15 June 2009
Antiprediction is a statement of confidence in event not happening, as contrasted by prediction, telling that an event will happen. Antiprediction fights the tendency of people to clutch to the last possibility, even where it's completely implausible that a certain event will happen, to a point where thinking about it becomes counterproductive and otherwise distorts the decision-making process. Just as prediction simplifies reasoning by allowing to assume that an even will occur and only planning for the case where it does occur, antiprediction simplifies the reasoning by allowing to completely disregard the case where the event occurs.
