Difference between revisions of "Aumann's agreement theorem"

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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/meme_lineages_a.html Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus] by [[Carl Shulman]] (OB)
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/meme_lineages_a.html Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus] by [[Carl Shulman]] (OB)
 
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/1il/probability_space_aumann_agreement/ Probability Space & Aumann Agreement] by [[Wei Dai]]
 
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/1il/probability_space_aumann_agreement/ Probability Space & Aumann Agreement] by [[Wei Dai]]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/i5/bayesian_judo/ Bayesian Judo] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 13:24, 4 March 2010

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Aumann's agreement theorem, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors, and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

Blog posts

See also

References

  • Robert J. Aumann (1976). "Agreeing to Disagree". The Annals of Statistics 4 (6): 1236-1239. ISSN 00905364.  (PDF)
  • Tyler Cowen and Robin Hanson (2004). Are Disagreements Honest?.  (PDF, Talk video)

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