Difference between revisions of "Aumann's agreement theorem"
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==See Also== | ==See Also== | ||
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| − | ==== | + | *[[Disagreement]] |
| + | *[[Modesty argument]] | ||
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| + | ==Blog posts== | ||
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| + | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/agreeing_to_agr.html Agreeing to Agree] by [[Hal Finney]] | ||
| + | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_proper_use_.html The Proper Use of Humility] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||
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| + | ==External references== | ||
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*{{Cite journal | *{{Cite journal | ||
| − | + | | author = Robert J. Aumann | |
| − | + | | title = Agreeing to Disagree | |
| − | + | | year = 1976 | |
| − | + | | journal = The Annals of Statistics | |
| − | + | | issn = 00905364 | |
| − | + | | volume = 4 | |
| − | + | | issue = 6 | |
| − | + | | pages = 1236-1239 | |
| − | + | }} ([http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/~raumann/pdf/Agreeing%20to%20Disagree.pdf PDF]) | |
| − | + | *{{Cite journal | |
| − | + | | author = Tyler Cowen and Robin Hanson | |
| + | | title = Are Disagreements Honest? | ||
| + | | year = 2004 | ||
| + | }} ([http://hanson.gmu.edu/deceive.pdf PDF]) | ||
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[[Category:Theorems]] | [[Category:Theorems]] | ||
Revision as of 00:36, 26 June 2009
Aumann's agreement theorem, informally stated, says that two people acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors, and have common knowledge of each person's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments after becoming aware of any discrepencies.
