Difference between revisions of "Aumann's agreement theorem"

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==See Also==
 
==See Also==
<!-- For related LWiki articles, formatted as a list -->
 
* [[Disagreement]]
 
* [[Modesty argument]]
 
==References==
 
<!-- Always keep this header if there is at least one reference
 
    Delete or add sections below as necessary -->
 
=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
 
<!-- For related Overcoming Bias articles,
 
    formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ -->
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/agreeing_to_agr.html Agreeing to Agree] by [[Hal Finney]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_proper_use_.html The Proper Use of Humility] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
  
=====Other=====
+
*[[Disagreement]]
 +
*[[Modesty argument]]
 +
 
 +
==Blog posts==
 +
 
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/agreeing_to_agr.html Agreeing to Agree] by [[Hal Finney]]
 +
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_proper_use_.html The Proper Use of Humility] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 +
 
 +
==External references==
 +
 
 
*{{Cite journal
 
*{{Cite journal
| issn = 00905364
+
| author = Robert J. Aumann
| volume = 4
+
| title = Agreeing to Disagree
| issue = 6
+
| year = 1976
| pages = 1236-1239
+
| journal = The Annals of Statistics
| last = Aumann
+
| issn = 00905364
| first = Robert J.
+
| volume = 4
| title = [http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/~raumann/pdf/Agreeing%20to%20Disagree.pdf Agreeing to Disagree]
+
| issue = 6
| journal = The Annals of Statistics
+
| pages = 1236-1239
| accessdate = 2009-04-18
+
}} ([http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/~raumann/pdf/Agreeing%20to%20Disagree.pdf PDF])
| date = 1976-11
+
*{{Cite journal
}}
+
| author = Tyler Cowen and Robin Hanson
 +
| title = Are Disagreements Honest?
 +
| year = 2004
 +
}} ([http://hanson.gmu.edu/deceive.pdf PDF])
 +
 
 
[[Category:Theorems]]
 
[[Category:Theorems]]

Revision as of 00:36, 26 June 2009

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Aumann's agreement theorem, informally stated, says that two people acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors, and have common knowledge of each person's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments after becoming aware of any discrepencies.

See Also

Blog posts

External references

  • Robert J. Aumann (1976). "Agreeing to Disagree". The Annals of Statistics 4 (6): 1236-1239. ISSN 00905364.  (PDF)
  • Tyler Cowen and Robin Hanson (2004). Are Disagreements Honest?.  (PDF)