Bayes' theorem

A law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate. Bayesian rationality takes its name from this theorem, as it is regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty.

The theorem commonly takes the form:

$P(A|B)={\frac {P(B|A)\,P(A)}{P(B)}}$

where A is the proposition of interest, B is the observed evidence, P(A) and P(B) are prior probabilities, and P(A|B) is the posterior probability of A.

With the posterior odds, the prior odds and the likelihood ratio written explicitly, the theorem reads:

${\frac {P(A|B)}{P(\neg A|B)}}={\frac {P(A)}{P(\neg A)}}\cdot {\frac {P(B|A)}{P(B|\neg A)}}$

Visualization

See also

• Bayesian probability
• Likelihood ratio

External references

• An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Odds, evidence, and an intuitive form of Bayes’ theorem by Vladimir Nesov