# Difference between revisions of "Bayes' theorem"

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− | * [[Bayesian probability]] | + | *[[Bayesian probability]] |

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− | + | *[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | |

− | + | *[http://causalityrelay.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/odds-and-intuitive-bayes/ Odds, evidence, and an intuitive form of Bayes’ theorem] by [[Vladimir Nesov]] | |

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− | * [http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||

− | * [http://causalityrelay.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/odds-and-intuitive-bayes/ Odds, evidence, and an intuitive form of Bayes’ theorem] by [[Vladimir Nesov]] | ||

[[Category:Theorems]] | [[Category:Theorems]] |

## Revision as of 18:15, 30 May 2009

A law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate. Bayesian rationality takes its name from this theorem, as it is regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty.

The theorem commonly takes the form:

where A is the proposition of interest, B is the observed evidence, P(A) and P(B) are prior probabilities, and P(A|B) is the posterior probability of A.

With the posterior odds, the prior odds and the likelihood ratio written explicitly, the theorem reads: