Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities]
 
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities]
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Revision as of 04:24, 23 December 2012

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

Blog posts

See also

External links