Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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(External links: What is Bayesian statistics?)
 
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*[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
 
*[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
 
*[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]]
 
*[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]]
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*[http://www.bandolier.org.uk/painres/download/whatis/What_is_Bay_stats.pdf What is Bayesian statistics?]
  
 
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Latest revision as of 11:47, 4 July 2017

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

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