Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}}
 
{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}}
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{{arbitallink|https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_probability/|Bayes' rule: Probability form}}
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'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[Wikipedia:Frequentist_inference|frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
  
'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
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An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
  
An event<ref>[[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)]]</ref> with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
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The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
  
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
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==Blog posts==
  
==Footnotes==
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/1to/what_is_bayesianism/ What is Bayesianism?]
<references/>
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/s6/probability_is_subjectively_objective/ Probability is Subjectively Objective]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/oj/probability_is_in_the_mind/ Probability is in the Mind]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/g13/against_nhst/ Against NHST]
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*{{lesswrongtag|Probability}}
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
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*[[Mind projection fallacy]]
 
*[[Mind projection fallacy]]
  
==Blog posts==
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==External links==
 
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*[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/oj/probability_is_in_the_mind/ Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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*[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]]
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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*[http://www.bandolier.org.uk/painres/download/whatis/What_is_Bay_stats.pdf What is Bayesian statistics?]
*{{lesswrongtag|Probability}}
 
  
 
{{stub}}
 
{{stub}}
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
 
[[Category:Bayesian]]
 
[[Category:Bayesian]]

Latest revision as of 12:47, 4 July 2017

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Wikipedia has an article about

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

Blog posts

See also

External links