Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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(External links: What is Bayesian statistics?)
 
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A '''bayesian''' is someone who views probability as a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [http://lesswrong.wikia.com/index.php?title=frequentist&action=edit&redlink=1 frequentist] who views probability as a representation of how frequently a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
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{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}}
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{{arbitallink|https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_probability/|Bayes' rule: Probability form}}
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'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[Wikipedia:Frequentist_inference|frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
  
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An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
  
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The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
  
An event with a probability of .6 (or 60%) will be viewed by a bayesian as stating "I am 60% confident event X will happen in this next trial."
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==Blog posts==
  
Whereas a frequentist would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/1to/what_is_bayesianism/ What is Bayesianism?]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/s6/probability_is_subjectively_objective/ Probability is Subjectively Objective]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/oj/probability_is_in_the_mind/ Probability is in the Mind]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/g13/against_nhst/ Against NHST]
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*{{lesswrongtag|Probability}}
  
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==See also==
  
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*[[Priors]]
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*[[Bayesian]]
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*[[Bayes' theorem]]
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*[[Mind projection fallacy]]
  
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]].
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==External links==
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*[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
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*[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]]
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*[http://www.bandolier.org.uk/painres/download/whatis/What_is_Bay_stats.pdf What is Bayesian statistics?]
  
 
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{{stub}}
 
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[[Category:Concepts]]
== References ==
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[[Category:Bayesian]]
 
 
 
 
=== Overcoming Bias Articles ===
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
=== Less Wrong Articles ===
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
=== Other Resources ===
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
*[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes Bayes' Theorem] by [http://lesswrong.wikia.com/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky Eliezer Yudkowsky]
 
[[Category:Article stubs]]
 

Latest revision as of 11:47, 4 July 2017

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Wikipedia has an article about

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

Blog posts

See also

External links