Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"
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*[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences | *[http://www.astro.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/index.html BIPS]: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences | ||
*[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]] | *[[Wikipedia:Maximum entropy thermodynamics|Maximum entropy thermodynamics]] | ||
| + | *[http://www.bandolier.org.uk/painres/download/whatis/What_is_Bay_stats.pdf What is Bayesian statistics?] | ||
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[[Category:Concepts]] | [[Category:Concepts]] | ||
[[Category:Bayesian]] | [[Category:Bayesian]] | ||
Latest revision as of 12:47, 4 July 2017
Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
Blog posts
- What is Bayesianism?
- Probability is Subjectively Objective
- Probability is in the Mind
- When (Not) To Use Probabilities
- Against NHST
- All Less Wrong posts tagged "Probability"
See also
External links
- BIPS: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
- Maximum entropy thermodynamics
- What is Bayesian statistics?
