Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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*[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes Bayes' Theorem]  by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
  
 
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Revision as of 23:00, 10 May 2009

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.


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