Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-probabilit.html Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-probabilit.html Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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[[Category:Concepts]]
 
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Revision as of 03:35, 26 May 2009

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.


See Also

References

Footnotes
Overcoming Bias Articles
Less Wrong Articles

All Less Wrong posts tagged "Probability"