# Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-probabilit.html Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | * [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-probabilit.html Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||

* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | * [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||

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+ | =====Less Wrong Articles===== | ||

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+ | formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ --> | ||

+ | {{lesswrongtag|Probability}} | ||

[[Category:Article stubs]] | [[Category:Article stubs]] | ||

[[Category:Concepts]] | [[Category:Concepts]] |

## Revision as of 04:35, 26 May 2009

**Bayesian probability** represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event^{[1]} with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

## See Also

## References

##### Footnotes

##### Overcoming Bias Articles

- Probability is in the Mind by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- When (Not) To Use Probabilities by Eliezer Yudkowsky