Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}}
 
{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}}
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'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
 
'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
  
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The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
 
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
  
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==Footnotes==
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<references/>
  
==See Also==
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==See also==
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* [[Bayesian]]
 
* [[Frequentist]]
 
* [[Bayes' theorem]]
 
  
==References==
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*[[Bayesian]]
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*[[Frequentist]]
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*[[Bayes' theorem]]
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*[[Mind projection fallacy]]
  
=====Footnotes=====
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==Blog posts==
<references/>
 
=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
 
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* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/03/mind-probabilit.html Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
  
=====Less Wrong Articles=====
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/oj/probability_is_in_the_mind/ Probability is in the Mind] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
<!-- For related Less Wrong articles,
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/sg/when_not_to_use_probabilities/ When (Not) To Use Probabilities] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
    formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ -->
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*{{lesswrongtag|Probability}}
{{lesswrongtag|Probability}}
 
  
[[Category:Article stubs]]
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{{stub}}
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
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[[Category:Bayesian]]

Revision as of 02:50, 27 June 2009

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

Footnotes

See also

Blog posts