Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"
From Lesswrongwiki
m |
|||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
{{wikilink|Bayesian probability}} | {{wikilink|Bayesian probability}} | ||
| − | |||
'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. | '''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. | ||
Revision as of 08:57, 10 August 2010
Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
Blog posts
- What is Bayesianism?
- Probability is Subjectively Objective
- Probability is in the Mind
- When (Not) To Use Probabilities
- All Less Wrong posts tagged "Probability"
