# Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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A '''bayesian''' is someone who views probability as a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [http://lesswrong.wikia.com/index.php?title=frequentist&action=edit&redlink=1 frequentist] who views probability as a representation of how frequently a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. | A '''bayesian''' is someone who views probability as a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [http://lesswrong.wikia.com/index.php?title=frequentist&action=edit&redlink=1 frequentist] who views probability as a representation of how frequently a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. | ||

− | + | An event with a probability of .6 (or 60%) will be viewed by a bayesian as stating "I am 60% confident event X will happen in this next trial", whereas a frequentist would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times." | |

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− | An event with a probability of .6 (or 60%) will be viewed by a bayesian as stating "I am 60% confident event X will happen in this next trial | ||

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The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]]. | The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds|possible worlds]]. | ||

+ | ==See Also== | ||

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− | == References == | + | ==References== |

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− | === | + | =====Footnotes===== |

+ | <references/> | ||

+ | =====Overcoming Bias Articles===== | ||

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+ | =====Less Wrong Articles===== | ||

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− | === Other Resources === | + | =====Other Resources===== |

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− | *[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes Bayes' Theorem] by [ | + | *[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes Bayes' Theorem] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] |

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## Revision as of 15:10, 19 April 2009

Template:Bayesian
A **bayesian** is someone who views probability as a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist who views probability as a representation of how frequently a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with a probability of .6 (or 60%) will be viewed by a bayesian as stating "I am 60% confident event X will happen in this next trial", whereas a frequentist would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of possible worlds where it is true out of the total number of possible worlds.

## Contents

## See Also

## References

##### Footnotes