# Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

m (Bayesian moved to Bayesian probability: Bayesian, as used on OB/LW, is an agent implementing Bayesian inference. This article is about Bayesian interpretation of probability.) |
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− | + | '''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. | |

− | An event with | + | An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times." |

− | The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A | + | The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds]]. |

==See Also== | ==See Also== | ||

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+ | * [[Bayesian]] | ||

+ | * [[Frequentist]] | ||

− | ==References== | + | ==References== |

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Delete or add sections below as necessary --> | Delete or add sections below as necessary --> |

## Revision as of 22:24, 19 April 2009

**Bayesian probability** represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of possible worlds where it is true out of the total number of possible worlds.

## Contents

## See Also

## References

##### Footnotes