Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
 
'''Bayesian probability''' represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a [[frequentist]] probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
  
An event<ref>[[wikipedia:Event (probability theory)]]</ref> with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
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An event<ref>[[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)]]</ref> with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
  
 
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds]].
 
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of [[possible worlds]] where it is true out of the total number of [[possible worlds]].

Revision as of 21:38, 19 April 2009

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of possible worlds where it is true out of the total number of possible worlds.


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