Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

From Lesswrongwiki
Jump to: navigation, search
m (Reverted edits by Xadmin (talk) to last revision by Rdb)
m (Corrected a comma splice.)
Line 4: Line 4:
 
An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
 
An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
  
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
+
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
  
 
==Blog posts==
 
==Blog posts==

Revision as of 19:17, 9 January 2012

Smallwikipedialogo.png
Wikipedia has an article about

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

Blog posts

See also

External links