# Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

From Lesswrongwiki

PeerInfinity (talk | contribs) |
PeerInfinity (talk | contribs) (all "See also" links should be bidirectional) |
||

Line 20: | Line 20: | ||

*[[Bayes' theorem]] | *[[Bayes' theorem]] | ||

*[[Mind projection fallacy]] | *[[Mind projection fallacy]] | ||

+ | *[[Absolute certainty]] | ||

{{stub}} | {{stub}} | ||

[[Category:Concepts]] | [[Category:Concepts]] | ||

[[Category:Bayesian]] | [[Category:Bayesian]] |

## Revision as of 08:03, 25 October 2009

**Bayesian probability** represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

## Blog posts

- Probability is Subjectively Objective by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Probability is in the Mind by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- When (Not) To Use Probabilities by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- All Less Wrong posts tagged "Probability"