Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"
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An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times." | An [[Wikipedia:Event (probability theory)|event]] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times." | ||
| − | The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea | + | The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. |
==Blog posts== | ==Blog posts== | ||
Revision as of 18:17, 9 January 2012
Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.
An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."
The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.
Blog posts
- What is Bayesianism?
- Probability is Subjectively Objective
- Probability is in the Mind
- When (Not) To Use Probabilities
- All Less Wrong posts tagged "Probability"
See also
External links
- BIPS: Bayesian Inference for the Physical Sciences
- Maximum entropy thermodynamics
