Difference between revisions of "Bayesian probability"

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==See also==
 
==See also==
  
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*[[Priors]]
 
*[[Bayesian]]
 
*[[Bayesian]]
*[[Frequentist]]
 
 
*[[Bayes' theorem]]
 
*[[Bayes' theorem]]
 
*[[Mind projection fallacy]]
 
*[[Mind projection fallacy]]

Revision as of 21:27, 23 July 2009

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Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10.

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