Bayesian probability

From Lesswrongwiki
Revision as of 21:33, 19 April 2009 by Vladimir Nesov (talk)
Jump to: navigation, search
Smallwikipedialogo.png
Wikipedia has an article about

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event[1] with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times."

The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea, either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. A Bayesian however views ideas in a different light, the probability of an idea being true is equal to the number of possible worlds where it is true out of the total number of possible worlds.


See Also

References

Footnotes
Overcoming Bias Articles
Less Wrong Articles
Other Resources