Difference between revisions of "Burdensome details"

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The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound ''more plausible'' to human ears because of the [[representativeness heuristic]], even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as '''burdensome details''' drive the probability of the conjunction down ''exponentially''.
 
The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound ''more plausible'' to human ears because of the [[representativeness heuristic]], even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as '''burdensome details''' drive the probability of the conjunction down ''exponentially''.
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==Blog posts==
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/ Burdensome Details] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
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*[[Conjunction fallacy]]
 
*[[Conjunction fallacy]]
 
*[[Representativeness heuristic]]
 
*[[Representativeness heuristic]]
 
==Blog posts==
 
 
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/ Burdensome Details] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
  
 
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[[Category:Fallacies]]
 
[[Category:Fallacies]]

Revision as of 04:31, 29 September 2009

The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the representativeness heuristic, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially.

Blog posts

See also