Burdensome details

From Lesswrongwiki
Revision as of 03:45, 9 September 2009 by PeerInfinity (talk | contribs)
Jump to: navigation, search

The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the representativeness heuristic, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially.

See also

Blog posts