Causal Decision Theory

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Causal Decision Theory is a branch of decision theory which advises an agent to take actions causally related to a desired outcome. It maximizes P(A>O), the utility of outcome O in the counterfactual in which action A is performed, which contrasts against Evidential Decision Theory.

The difference between Causal Decision Theory and Evidential Decision Theory is highlighted by CDT's correct answer to the Smoking lesion problem. However, problems with CDT are demonstrated by other scenarios, such as Newcomb's problem.

See also

Decision theory Evidential Decision Theory