Conservation of expected evidence

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In probability theory, once you know your destination, you are already there. If you can anticipate in advance updating your belief in a particular direction, then you should just go ahead and update now. On pain of paradox, a low probability of seeing strong evidence in one direction must be balanced by a high probability of observing weak counterevidence in the other direction.

Blog posts

"Conservation of Expected Evidence" by Eliezer Yudkowsky