Difference between revisions of "Disagreement"

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m (in Robin's model, it's not, because you can have multiple exchanges of stated probability so long as you don't know the other person's *next* stated probability. (Yay, edit war!))
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_are_never_e.html You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion] by [[Robin Hanson]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/you_are_never_e.html You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion] by [[Robin Hanson]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/normative_bayes.html Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement] by [[Nicholas Shackel]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/normative_bayes.html Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement] by [[Nicholas Shackel]]
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==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 02:18, 31 October 2010

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Aumann's agreement theorem can be informally interpreted as suggesting that if two people are honest seekers of truth, and both believe each other to be honest, then they should update on each other's opinions and quickly reach agreement. The very fact that a person believes something is Rational evidence that that something is true, and so this fact should be taken into account when forming your belief.

Outside of well-functioning prediction markets, Aumann agreement can probably only be approximated by careful deliberative discourse. Thus, fostering effective deliberation should be seen as a key goal of Less Wrong.

Blog posts

See also

References