Aumann's agreement theorem can be informally interpreted as suggesting that if two people are honest seekers of truth, and both believe each other to be honest, then they should update on each other's opinions and quickly (in one step) reach agreement. The very fact that a person believes something is Rational evidence that that something is true, and so this fact should be taken into account when forming your belief.
Outside of well-functioning prediction markets, Aumann agreement can probably only be approximated by careful deliberative discourse. Thus, fostering effective deliberation should be seen as a key goal of Less Wrong.
- Reasonable Disagreement by Nicholas Shackel
- Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
- You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion by Robin Hanson
- Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement by Nicholas Shackel