Difference between revisions of "Error of crowds"

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==References==
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The '''error of crowds''' is the idea that under some scoring rules, the average error becomes less than the error of the average, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of [[modesty argument]] and [[wisdom of the crowd]].
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=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
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A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.
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==Blog posts==
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_error_of_cr.html The Error of Crowds] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hc/the_error_of_crowds/ The Error of Crowds]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hd/the_majority_is_always_wrong/ The Majority Is Always Wrong]
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==See also==
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*[[Modesty argument]]
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*[[Wisdom of the crowd]]
  
 
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[[Category:Concepts]]

Latest revision as of 06:29, 18 November 2009

The error of crowds is the idea that under some scoring rules, the average error becomes less than the error of the average, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of modesty argument and wisdom of the crowd.

A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.

Blog posts

See also