Difference between revisions of "Error of crowds"

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The Error of Crowds is the idea that under many scoring rules, following an average of the various beliefs will result in a belief less useful than randomly selecting one. A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.
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The '''error of crowds''' is the idea that under some scoring rules, the average error becomes less than the error of the average, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of [[modesty argument]] and [[wisdom of the crowd]].
==References==
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A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.
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==See also==
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*[[Modesty argument]]
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*[[Wisdom of the crowd]]
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==Blog posts==
  
=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
 
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_error_of_cr.html The Error of Crowds] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_error_of_cr.html The Error of Crowds] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_majority_is.html The Majority Is Always Wrong] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/the_majority_is.html The Majority Is Always Wrong] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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[[Category:Concepts]]

Revision as of 20:59, 25 June 2009

The error of crowds is the idea that under some scoring rules, the average error becomes less than the error of the average, thus making the average belief tautologically worse than a belief of a random person. Compare this to the ideas of modesty argument and wisdom of the crowd.

A related idea is that a popular belief is likely to be wrong because the less popular ones couldn't maintain support if they were worse than the popular one.

See also

Blog posts