Evidence

Evidence for a given theory is the observation of an event that is more likely to occur if the theory is true than if it is false. (The event would be evidence against the theory if it is less likely if the theory is true.)

The likelihood ratio term ${\frac {P(B|A)}{P(B|\neg A)}}$ from Bayes' theorem is greater than 1 if the event B is evidence of the theory A, and less than 1 if the event is evidence against the theory.

See also

• Generalization from fictional evidence
• Evidence of absence
• Extraordinary evidence
• Rational evidence
• Filtered evidence

Blog posts

• What is Evidence? by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• How Much Evidence Does It Take? by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence by Eliezer Yudkowsky