Evidential Decision Theory

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Evidential Decision Theory is a branch of decision theory which advises an agent to act to place itself in a reference class with the most favorable expected outcome. It maximizes P(O|A), the expected utility of outcome O given that action A has been performed, which contrasts against Causal Decision Theory.

EDT is criticized for recommending courses of action with no causal relationship to desired outcomes. The difference between Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory is highlighted by EDT giving the wrong answer to the Smoking lesion problem.

See also

Decision theory Causal Decision Theory