Difference between revisions of "Friedman unit"

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The Wikipedia entry on Friedman Units tracks over 30 different cases between 2003 and 2007 in which someone labeled the "next six months" as the "critical period in Iraq".  Apparently one of the worst offenders is journalist Thomas Friedman after whom the unit was named (8 different predictions in 4 years).  In similar news, some of my colleagues in Artificial Intelligence (you know who you are) have been predicting the spectacular success of their projects in "3-5 years" for as long as I've known them, that is, since at least 2000.
 
The Wikipedia entry on Friedman Units tracks over 30 different cases between 2003 and 2007 in which someone labeled the "next six months" as the "critical period in Iraq".  Apparently one of the worst offenders is journalist Thomas Friedman after whom the unit was named (8 different predictions in 4 years).  In similar news, some of my colleagues in Artificial Intelligence (you know who you are) have been predicting the spectacular success of their projects in "3-5 years" for as long as I've known them, that is, since at least 2000.
|[[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]|[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/futuristic_pred.html Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods]}}
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|[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hi/futuristic_predictions_as_consumable_goods/ Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods]}}
  
 
==Blog posts==
 
==Blog posts==
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/04/futuristic_pred.html Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/hi/futuristic_predictions_as_consumable_goods/ Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods]
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==See also==
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*[[Future]]
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*[[Near/far thinking]]
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[[Category:Future]]

Latest revision as of 06:55, 18 November 2009

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The Wikipedia entry on Friedman Units tracks over 30 different cases between 2003 and 2007 in which someone labeled the "next six months" as the "critical period in Iraq". Apparently one of the worst offenders is journalist Thomas Friedman after whom the unit was named (8 different predictions in 4 years). In similar news, some of my colleagues in Artificial Intelligence (you know who you are) have been predicting the spectacular success of their projects in "3-5 years" for as long as I've known them, that is, since at least 2000.

Blog posts

See also