Difference between revisions of "Good-story bias"

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Optimizing predictions for sounding good as stories, when nature optimizes for no such thing, creates a bias that [[Nick Bostrom]] [http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html has termed] good-story bias.
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Optimizing predictions for sounding good as stories, when nature optimizes for no such thing, creates a bias that [[Nick Bostrom]] [http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html has termed] good-story bias. If a disaster kills off all sentient life quickly and without warning, that's a boring story and therefore one of which we might underestimate the plausibility.
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
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*[[Narrative fallacy]]
 
*[[Narrative fallacy]]
 
*[[Generalization from fictional evidence]]
 
*[[Generalization from fictional evidence]]
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*[[Existential risk]]
  
 
==Blog posts==
 
==Blog posts==
 
*[http://overcomingbias.com/2007/07/tell-your-anti-.html Tell Your Anti-Story] by [[Robin Hanson]]
 
*[http://overcomingbias.com/2007/07/tell-your-anti-.html Tell Your Anti-Story] by [[Robin Hanson]]

Revision as of 07:09, 4 September 2009

Optimizing predictions for sounding good as stories, when nature optimizes for no such thing, creates a bias that Nick Bostrom has termed good-story bias. If a disaster kills off all sentient life quickly and without warning, that's a boring story and therefore one of which we might underestimate the plausibility.

See also

Blog posts