Less Wrong/2007 Articles/Summaries
Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary
Publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals are more worthy of trust than what you detect with your own ears and eyes.
Written regarding the proverb "Outside the laboratory, scientists are no wiser than anyone else." The case is made that if this proverb is in fact true, that's quite worrisome because it implies that scientists are blindly following scientific rituals without understanding why. In particular, it is argued that if a scientist is religious, they probably don't understand the foundations of science very well.
People act funny when they talk about politics. In the ancestral environment, being on the wrong side might get you killed, and being on the correct side might get you sex, food or let you kill your hated rival. If you must talk about politics (for the purposes of teaching rationality) use examples from the distant past. Politics is an extension of war by other means. Arguments are soldiers. Once you know which side you're on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it's like stabbing your soldiers in the back - providing aid and comfort to the enemy. If your topic legitimately relates to attempts to ban evolution in school curricula, then go ahead and talk about it - but don't blame it explicitly on the whole Republican Party (Democratic/Liberal/Conservative/Nationalist).
Casey Serin owes banks 2.2 million dollars after lying on mortgage applications in order to simultaneously buy 8 different houses in different states. The sad part is that he hasn't given up - hasn't declared bankruptcy, and just attempted to purchase another house. While this behavior seems merely stupid, it recalls Merton and Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management who made 40% profits for three years and then lost it all when they overleveraged. Each profession has rules on how to be successful which makes rationality seem unlikely to help greatly in life. Yet it seems that one of the greater skills is not being stupid, which rationality does help with.
Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality
Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization
At least 3 people have died by playing online games non-stop. How is it that a game is so enticing that after 57 straight hours playing, a person would rather spend the next hour playing the game over sleeping or eating? A candy bar is superstimulus, it corresponds overwhelmingly well to the EEA healthy food characteristics of sugar and fat. If people enjoy these things, the market will respond to provide as much of it as possible, even if other considerations make it undesirable.
Imagine that Archimedes of Syracuse invented a device that allows you to talk to him. Imagine the possibilities for improving history! Unfortunately, the device will not literally transmit your words - it transmits cognitive strategies. If you advise giving women the vote, it comes out as advising finding a wise tyrant, the Greek ideal of political discourse. Under such restrictions, what do you say to Archimedes?
Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?
Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People
Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction
Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods
The Friedman Unit is named after Thomas Friedman who 8 times (between 2003 and 2007) called "the next six months" the critical period in Iraq. This is because future predictions are created and consumed in the now; they are used to create feelings of delicious goodness or delicious horror now, not provide useful future advice.
Priors as Mathematical Objects
Your Rationality is My Business
Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread
Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism
Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
Two More Things to Unlearn from School
Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
Religion's Claim to be Non-Disprovable
The Importance of Saying "Oops"
Your Strength as a Rationalist
Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
Conservation of Expected Evidence
Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
Is Molecular Nanotechnology "Scientific"?
Guessing the Teacher's Password
Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark
"Science" as Curiosity-Stopper
Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
We Don't Really Want Your Participation
Rationality and the English Language
Human Evil and Muddled Thinking
Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)
Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)
How Much Evidence Does It Take?
How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
What Evidence Filtered Evidence?
Recommended Rationalist Reading
We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
Avoiding Your Belief's Real Weak Points
No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws
Do We Believe Everything We're Told?
The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
Hold Off On Proposing Solutions
Congratulations to Paris Hilton
Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities
Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
Expecting Short Inferential Distances
Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low!
Double Illusion of Transparency
No One Knows What Science Doesn't Know
Why Are Individual IQ Differences OK?
Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation
A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
A Terrifying Halloween Costume
Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway)
Natural Selection's Speed Limit and Complexity Bound
The Tragedy of Group Selectionism
Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers
Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism
Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices
Conjuring An Evolution To Serve You
Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone)
The Hidden Complexity of Wishes
Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping)
Is there a way to exploit human biases to give the impression of largess with cheap gifts? Yes. Humans compare the value/price of an object to other similar objects. A $399 Eee PC is cheap (because other laptops are more expensive), yet a $399 PS3 is expensive (because the alternatives are less expensive). To give the impression of expense in a gift chose a cheap class of item (say, a candle) and buy the most expensive one around.
Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism
Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs
Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
Argument Screens Off Authority
Zen and the Art of Rationality
