Difference between revisions of "Modesty argument"

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The Modesty Argument is inspired by [[Aumann's agreement theorem]], which shows that genuine Bayesians cannot agree to disagree.
 
The Modesty Argument is inspired by [[Aumann's agreement theorem]], which shows that genuine Bayesians cannot agree to disagree.
  
The Modesty Argument was at least partially refuted by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] in the article: [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_modesty_arg.html The Modesty Argument]
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==Blog posts==
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/gr/the_modesty_argument/ The Modesty Argument]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_the_modest.html Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?] by Paul Gowder
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/modesty_in_a_di.html Modesty in a Disagreeable World] by [[Wikipedia:Hal Finney (cypherpunk)|Hal Finney]]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/on_majoritarian.html Philosophical Majoritarianism] by [[Wikipedia:Hal Finney (cypherpunk)|Hal Finney]]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/es/how_to_use_philisophical_majoritarianism/ How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"] by jimmy
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
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*[[Modesty]]
 
*[[Aumann's agreement theorem]]
 
*[[Aumann's agreement theorem]]
 
*[[Disagreement]]
 
*[[Disagreement]]
 
*[[Error of crowds]]
 
*[[Error of crowds]]
 
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*[[Information cascade]]
==References==
 
<!-- Always keep this header if there is at least one reference
 
    Delete or add sections below as necessary -->
 
 
 
=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
 
<!-- For related Overcoming Bias articles,
 
    formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ -->
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_modesty_arg.html The Modesty Argument] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_the_modest.html Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?] by [[Paul Gowder]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/modesty_in_a_di.html Modesty in a Disagreeable World] by [[Hal Finney]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/on_majoritarian.html Philosophical Majoritarianism] by [[Hal Finney]]
 
 
 
=====Less Wrong Articles=====
 
<!-- For related Less Wrong articles,
 
    formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ -->
 
* [http://lesswrong.com/lw/es/how_to_use_philisophical_majoritarianism/ How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"] by [[jimmy]]
 
  
 
[[Category:Positions]]
 
[[Category:Positions]]
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[[Category:Concepts]]

Latest revision as of 01:08, 11 March 2012

The modesty argument is the claim that when two or more rational agents have common knowledge of a disagreement over the likelihood of an issue of simple fact, they should each adjust their probability estimates in the direction of the others'. This process should continue until the two agents are in full agreement. The name comes from the idea that rational agents should not privilege evidence they have gathered over evidence gathered by others, i.e. agents should be modest about their own estimates.

The Modesty Argument is inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, which shows that genuine Bayesians cannot agree to disagree.

Blog posts

See also