Difference between revisions of "Modesty argument"

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==See also==
 
==See also==
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*[[Aumann's agreement theorem]]
 
*[[Aumann's agreement theorem]]
 
*[[Disagreement]]
 
*[[Disagreement]]
 
*[[Error of crowds]]
 
*[[Error of crowds]]
  
==References==
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==Blog posts==
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=====Overcoming Bias Articles=====
 
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* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_modesty_arg.html The Modesty Argument] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_the_modest.html Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?] by [[Paul Gowder]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/modesty_in_a_di.html Modesty in a Disagreeable World] by [[Hal Finney]]
 
* [http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/on_majoritarian.html Philosophical Majoritarianism] by [[Hal Finney]]
 
  
=====Less Wrong Articles=====
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_modesty_arg.html The Modesty Argument] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_the_modest.html Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?] by [[Paul Gowder]]
    formatted as a list with each entry as "/Title/ by /Author/ -->
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/modesty_in_a_di.html Modesty in a Disagreeable World] by [[Hal Finney]]
* [http://lesswrong.com/lw/es/how_to_use_philisophical_majoritarianism/ How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"] by [[jimmy]]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/on_majoritarian.html Philosophical Majoritarianism] by [[Hal Finney]]
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*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/es/how_to_use_philisophical_majoritarianism/ How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"] by [[jimmy]]
  
 
[[Category:Positions]]
 
[[Category:Positions]]
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[[Category:Concepts]]

Revision as of 19:50, 25 June 2009

The modesty argument is the claim that when two or more rational agents have common knowledge of a disagreement over the likelihood of an issue of simple fact, they should each adjust their probability estimates in the direction of the others'. This process should continue until the two agents are in full agreement. The name comes from the idea that rational agents should not privilege evidence they have gathered over evidence gathered by others, i.e. agents should be modest about their own estimates.

The Modesty Argument is inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, which shows that genuine Bayesians cannot agree to disagree.

The Modesty Argument was at least partially refuted by Eliezer Yudkowsky in the article: The Modesty Argument

See also

Blog posts