Difference between revisions of "Overconfidence"

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'''Overconfidence''' is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your [[priors]] and the [[evidence]] available.  
 
'''Overconfidence''' is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your [[priors]] and the [[evidence]] available.  
  
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/moral_hypocricy.html Moral Overconfidence] by [[Robin Hanson]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/moral_hypocricy.html Moral Overconfidence] by [[Robin Hanson]]
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/when_error_is_h.html When Error is High, Simplify] by [[Robin Hanson]]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/when_error_is_h.html When Error is High, Simplify] by Robin Hanson
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/academic_overco.html Academic Overconfidence] by [[Robin Hanson]]
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/academic_overco.html Academic Overconfidence] by Robin Hanson
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/bosses_prefer_o.html Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers] by Robin Hanson
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/convenient-over.html Convenient Overconfidence] by Robin Hanson
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/overconfidence-explained.html Overconfidence Explained] by Robin Hanson
 
*{{lesswrongtag}}
 
*{{lesswrongtag}}
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
  
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*[[Underconfidence]]
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*[[Status]], [[modesty]]
 
*[[Dangerous knowledge]]
 
*[[Dangerous knowledge]]
  
 
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[[Category:Biases]]
 
[[Category:Biases]]
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[[Category:Signaling]]

Latest revision as of 15:01, 17 March 2012

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Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

See also