Difference between revisions of "Paranoid debating"

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A variant of [[The Aumann Game]] where one player purposefully subverts the group estimate. Similar to The Aumann Game, the activity consists of a group jointly producing a confidence interval for an unknown, but verifiable quantity, which is then [[logarithmic scoring|scored]] for [[accuracy]] and [[calibration]]. One individual is designated the spokesperson, who is responsible for choosing the final estimate. However, before the activity begins, one individual is secretly assigned the role of misleading the other members. The deceiver is scored higher the worse the final estimate is.
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A variant of [[The Aumann Game]] where one player purposefully subverts the group estimate. Similar to The Aumann Game, the activity consists of a group jointly producing a confidence interval for an unknown, but verifiable quantity, which is then [[Scoring rule|scored]] for [[accuracy]] and [[calibration]]. One individual is designated the spokesperson, who is responsible for choosing the final estimate. However, before the activity begins, one individual is secretly assigned the role of misleading the other members. The deceiver is scored higher the worse the final estimate is.
  
 
The activity is intended to teach accurate estimate, proper agreement techniques, and recognition of deception.
 
The activity is intended to teach accurate estimate, proper agreement techniques, and recognition of deception.

Revision as of 05:22, 22 July 2009

A variant of The Aumann Game where one player purposefully subverts the group estimate. Similar to The Aumann Game, the activity consists of a group jointly producing a confidence interval for an unknown, but verifiable quantity, which is then scored for accuracy and calibration. One individual is designated the spokesperson, who is responsible for choosing the final estimate. However, before the activity begins, one individual is secretly assigned the role of misleading the other members. The deceiver is scored higher the worse the final estimate is.

The activity is intended to teach accurate estimate, proper agreement techniques, and recognition of deception.

A typical subject for the game might be "How much maize is produced in Mexico annually?".

References

Less Wrong Articles