Difference between revisions of "Paranoid debating"

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* Players discuss for 20 minutes. Anyone may say anything. At the end, players write their revised estimates on their card.
 
* Players discuss for 20 minutes. Anyone may say anything. At the end, players write their revised estimates on their card.
 
* Players are scored based on their delta -- the more you go toward the correct answer from your initial estimate, the more points.
 
* Players are scored based on their delta -- the more you go toward the correct answer from your initial estimate, the more points.
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=Questions=
 +
It's really easy to ask a question that is then very difficult to answer later. For example, the question "How many miles of railroad are there in Africa?" is somewhat difficult to answer. Walking through the CIA World Fact Book one country at a time, we arrived at an answer in the range of <span style="color:#000000">48,000-49,000</span>. However, in cross-checking that information, we discovered that in Uganda, there are only <span style="color:#000000">125</span> miles of active railroad, but <span style="color:#000000">1200km</span> listed in the Fact Book. It seems likely, therefore, that the total estimate includes some non-active miles of railroad, and is thus too high. This section is here to list good and bad questions and resources to get questions from or answer questions unusually easily. If listing an answer, please make the text of the answer white so people can use it if they want.
  
 
=Scoring=
 
=Scoring=

Revision as of 03:53, 16 October 2010

A variant of The Aumann Game where one player purposefully subverts the group estimate. Similar to The Aumann Game, the activity consists of a group jointly producing a confidence interval for an unknown, but verifiable quantity, which is then scored for accuracy and calibration. One individual is designated the spokesperson, who is responsible for choosing the final estimate. However, before the activity begins, one individual is secretly assigned the role of misleading the other members. The deceiver is scored higher the worse the final estimate is.

The activity is intended to teach accurate estimate, proper agreement techniques, and recognition of deception.

A typical subject for the game might be "How much maize is produced in Mexico annually?".

Rules

  • Select player roles. In person, each player receives or selects a card from a pack of role cards. For 4 players, create a pack of role cards by combining 3 black cards with 1 red card. For 4-6 players there should be 1 red card and the rest black with the rest being enough for one card per person. For 7-9 players, 2 red cards. Some variants include a role named the Advocate, which you can designate one of the black cards to represent.

Simplest variant

  • Each player receives a role. No advocate.
  • A question is asked.
  • Players discuss for 20 minutes, then write down their individual response on a card.
  • The answer is researched.
  • Scores are assigned.

Advocate variant, #1

  • Each player receives a role. One advocate in the deck. The player who receives the Advocate displays it to the group.
  • A question is asked.
  • Players discuss for 20 minutes, attempting to convince the advocate. The advocate writes down their response on a card. This is the group's answer.
  • The answer is researched, scores are assigned.

Advocate variant, #2

  • Each player receives a role. One advocate in the deck. No player may display their card.
  • A question is asked.
  • Players discuss for 20 minutes. Anyone may say anything. At the end, the advocate writes down what they think the group's response is on a card, and the group is scored for this.
  • Answer researched, scores assigned.

Variation-by-argument variant

  • Each player receives a role. No advocate. No player may display their card.
  • A question is asked.
  • Players have 2-5 minutes to write down their initial, individual estimate.
  • Players discuss for 20 minutes. Anyone may say anything. At the end, players write their revised estimates on their card.
  • Players are scored based on their delta -- the more you go toward the correct answer from your initial estimate, the more points.

Questions

It's really easy to ask a question that is then very difficult to answer later. For example, the question "How many miles of railroad are there in Africa?" is somewhat difficult to answer. Walking through the CIA World Fact Book one country at a time, we arrived at an answer in the range of 48,000-49,000. However, in cross-checking that information, we discovered that in Uganda, there are only 125 miles of active railroad, but 1200km listed in the Fact Book. It seems likely, therefore, that the total estimate includes some non-active miles of railroad, and is thus too high. This section is here to list good and bad questions and resources to get questions from or answer questions unusually easily. If listing an answer, please make the text of the answer white so people can use it if they want.

Scoring

Playing this game would be easier if we had an established method of scoring.

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