Difference between revisions of "Possibility"
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Words in natural language carry [[connotation|connotations]] that may become misleading when the words get applied with technical precision. It's much more precise, for communication of the actual fact through connotation, to say that it's ''impossible'' to win a lottery, rather than that it's possible. This is an example of [[antiprediction]]. | Words in natural language carry [[connotation|connotations]] that may become misleading when the words get applied with technical precision. It's much more precise, for communication of the actual fact through connotation, to say that it's ''impossible'' to win a lottery, rather than that it's possible. This is an example of [[antiprediction]]. | ||
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* [[Probability]] | * [[Probability]] | ||
* [[Antiprediction]] | * [[Antiprediction]] | ||
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*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/still-a-chance.html But There's Still A Chance, Right?] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/still-a-chance.html But There's Still A Chance, Right?] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/useless_medical.html Useless Medical Disclaimers] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/03/useless_medical.html Useless Medical Disclaimers] by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] | ||
Revision as of 05:28, 10 June 2009
Taken literally, saying that there is a "possibility" of infection tells me nothing. The probability could be 1/1,000,000,000,000 and it would still be technically correct to describe the outcome as "possible".
Words in natural language carry connotations that may become misleading when the words get applied with technical precision. It's much more precise, for communication of the actual fact through connotation, to say that it's impossible to win a lottery, rather than that it's possible. This is an example of antiprediction.
Related concepts
Blog posts
- But There's Still A Chance, Right? by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Useless Medical Disclaimers by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Lotteries: A Waste of Hope by Eliezer Yudkowsky
