Difference between revisions of "Prediction market"

From Lesswrongwiki
Jump to: navigation, search
Line 7: Line 7:
  
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/first_known_bus.html A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market]  by [[Robin Hanson]]
 
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/first_known_bus.html A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market]  by [[Robin Hanson]]
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/leamers_1986_id.html Leamer's 1986 Idea Futures Proposal] by [[Robin Hanson]]
+
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/leamers_1986_id.html Leamer's 1986 Idea Futures Proposal] by Robin Hanson
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html Does Profit Rate Insight Best?] by [[Robin Hanson]]
+
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/does_profit_rat.html Does Profit Rate Insight Best?] by Robin Hanson
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/should_predicti.html Should Prediction Markets be Charities?] by [[Peter McCluskey]]
+
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/should_predicti.html Should Prediction Markets be Charities?] by Peter McCluskey
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_future_of_o_1.html The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities] by [[Hal Finney]]
+
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_future_of_o_1.html The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities] by [[Wikipedia:Hal Finney (cipherpunk)|Hal Finney]]
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/prediction-markets-as-collective-inteligence.html Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence] by [[Robin Hanson]]
+
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/prediction-markets-as-collective-inteligence.html Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence] by Robin Hanson
 +
 
 +
==See also==
 +
 
 +
*[[Prediction]]
 +
*[[Group rationality]]
 +
*[[Making beliefs pay rent]]
 +
 
 +
==External links==
 +
 
 +
*[http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html Idea Futures (a.k.a. Prediction Markets)] by Robin Hanson
 +
*[http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets Prediction Markets] at gwern.net
  
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
 
[[Category:Concepts]]
 
[[Category:Techniques]]
 
[[Category:Techniques]]

Revision as of 10:35, 11 March 2012

Smallwikipedialogo.png
Wikipedia has an article about

Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.

Blog posts

See also

External links