Difference between revisions of "Prediction market"
m |
|||
| Line 20: | Line 20: | ||
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/prediction-markets-as-collective-inteligence.html Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence] by Robin Hanson | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/prediction-markets-as-collective-inteligence.html Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence] by Robin Hanson | ||
*[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/11/conditional-close-election-markets.html Fixing Election Markets] by Robin Hanson | *[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/11/conditional-close-election-markets.html Fixing Election Markets] by Robin Hanson | ||
| − | |||
==External links== | ==External links== | ||
*[http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html Idea Futures (a.k.a. Prediction Markets)] by Robin Hanson | *[http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html Idea Futures (a.k.a. Prediction Markets)] by Robin Hanson | ||
| + | *[http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5317066/2011-graefe.pdf Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task] | ||
| + | |||
*[http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets Prediction Markets] at gwern.net | *[http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets Prediction Markets] at gwern.net | ||
[[Category:Concepts]] | [[Category:Concepts]] | ||
[[Category:Techniques]] | [[Category:Techniques]] | ||
Revision as of 11:23, 14 July 2012
Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event or parameter. The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker. Robin Hanson has suggested many innovative additions to predictions markets such as conditional predictions.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
Predictions markets have been used by organizations such as Google, General Electric, and Microsoft; several online and commercial prediction markets are also in operation. Historically, prediction markets have often been used to predict election outcomes.
See also
Blog posts
- A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market by Robin Hanson
- Leamer's 1986 Idea Futures Proposal by Robin Hanson
- Should Prediction Markets be Charities? by Peter McCluskey
- The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities by Hal Finney
- Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence by Robin Hanson
- Fixing Election Markets by Robin Hanson
External links
- Idea Futures (a.k.a. Prediction Markets) by Robin Hanson
- Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task
- Prediction Markets at gwern.net
