Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
- A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market by Robin Hanson
- Leamer's 1986 Idea Futures Proposal by Robin Hanson
- Does Profit Rate Insight Best? by Robin Hanson
- Should Prediction Markets be Charities? by Peter McCluskey
- The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities by Hal Finney
- Prediction Markets As Collective Intelligence by Robin Hanson