Difference between revisions of "Smoking lesion"

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:Smoking strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion, this correlation is understood to be because of a common cause—a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
 
:Smoking strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion, this correlation is understood to be because of a common cause—a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
  
:Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without
+
:Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with cancer. Should you smoke?
cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with
 
cancer. Should you smoke?
 
  
 
Naive [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_decision_theory causal decision theory] says "yes", and naive [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidential_decision_theory evidential decision theory] says "no".
 
Naive [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_decision_theory causal decision theory] says "yes", and naive [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidential_decision_theory evidential decision theory] says "no".

Revision as of 20:51, 19 May 2010

The Smoking Lesion is a problem for testing decision theories, stated as follows:

Smoking strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion, this correlation is understood to be because of a common cause—a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with cancer. Should you smoke?

Naive causal decision theory says "yes", and naive evidential decision theory says "no".

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See also