Difference between revisions of "Smoking lesion"

From Lesswrongwiki
Jump to: navigation, search
(fixed formatting)
m (grammar/clarification)
 
Line 1: Line 1:
 
'''The Smoking Lesion''' is a problem for testing [[decision theory|decision theories]], stated as follows:
 
'''The Smoking Lesion''' is a problem for testing [[decision theory|decision theories]], stated as follows:
  
:Smoking strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion, this correlation is understood to be because of a common cause—a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
+
:Smoking is strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion this correlation is understood to be the result of a common cause: a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
  
 
:Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with cancer. Should you smoke?
 
:Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with cancer. Should you smoke?

Latest revision as of 23:00, 2 May 2011

The Smoking Lesion is a problem for testing decision theories, stated as follows:

Smoking is strongly correlated with lung cancer, but in the world of the Smoker's Lesion this correlation is understood to be the result of a common cause: a genetic lesion that tends to cause both smoking and cancer. Once we fix the presence or absence of the lesion, there is no additional correlation between smoking and cancer.
Suppose you prefer smoking without cancer to not smoking without cancer, and prefer smoking with cancer to not smoking with cancer. Should you smoke?

Naive causal decision theory says "yes", and naive evidential decision theory says "no".

Blog posts

See also